Winde's new beginning

A week ago I speculated who will feature in Alan Winde’s first Western Cape cabinet. As mentioned then Winde can be consistent and only appoint a replacement for any possible vacancies. Read previous blog here: Winde vote for consistency or change

During a recent interview the guy known as the “jobs”-Premier confirmed he will be re-configuring the current portfolio’s and also look bringing in new younger talent. As Winde puts it: “I am not going to be around forever and we need to prepare now already.”

In the interview Winde was clear that he is looking at re-configuring cabinet to align it with the DA manifesto and only once that part is complete one can start adding names.

The incoming Premier of the Western Cape is advocating for jobs, safer communities, education that does more than the basic and the arts and culture sector to be more than performing arts but a vehicle for job creation. I’ve taken this, along with the DA’s ideal 15 national ministries and came to the following reconfiguration of the provincial executive:

- Health and Social Development
- Cultural Affairs and Sport
- Finance
- Human Settlements
- Community Safety
- Transport and Integrated Planning
- Agriculture, Local Government and International Relations
- Education, Skills & Innovation
- Environmental Affairs & Planning
- Economic Opportunities, Assets & Facilities

Adding names to the portfolio's is not that easy, as it looks...
Bonginkosi Madikizela looks set to return to Human Settlements. 
Nomafrench Mbombo has been very successful in the health portfolio and one would want her to continue with that. Because you can link the two Social Development could be added here.

Anroux Marais has been doing well at Arts, Cultural Affairs & Sport. Who can forget in her first three months she became the first MEC to go swim with lifeguards.

A possible successor at Community Safety is the former chairperson of the standing committee, Mireille Wenger. She is familiar with the portfolio, competent and being a female counts in her favour. Being married to the whistle-blower in the Patricia de Lille-saga, Craig Kesson, might raise the eyebrows though and could make a few people uncomfortable.

Another option is Albert Fritz, who headed the ministry previously. He could possibly also head Transport and Integrated Planning, a portfolio Tertius Simmers could also be given. This was Simmers' portfolio as Garden Route District Municipality MMC.
Simmers could also be given Economic Opportunities, Assets and Facilities. A portfolio currently headed by Beverely Schafer, whom I'm speculating if she does not return to the executive becomes Chief Whip.

Another candidate for Chief Whip is Debbie Schafer. That is if she does not return to Education, Skills and Innovation. Leaving it vacant for Daylin Mitchell.

It is highly unlikely that Anton Bredell will not return to Environmental Affairs and Planning. If he does not... A likely portfolio for Bredell, who is provincial chairperson, would be to move to the vacant Chief Whip position. Some will consider this a demotion and others might raise concern at separating party and state - as both positions are administrative.

A prominent DA member, who served as shadow finance minister, is rumoured to have his eye on the finance ministry.
David Maynier was Winde's campaign manager and is fit for purpose. I have no doubt that he will be included in the executive. 
The trick is that the finance portfolio is viewed as second most important after that of the premier, and both these occupied by white men in a coloured majority province is sending the wrong message.

This means dr. Ivan Meyer could head Agriculture, Local Government and International Relations. Meyer is the DA's deputy federal chairperson and most senior coloured leader in the party and has a good relationship with all three sectors.

As previously said another strong contender for Chief Whip is Andricus van der Westhuizen. The move by the former MP to the provincial legislature is surely not to be closer to retirement. Should Mitchell not be included in the executive he could become deputy Chief Whip. This is the DA showing confidence in the next generation.

Van der Westhuizen could likely also be deputy speaker. He was once upon a time the speaker of Stellenbosch Municipality. Another possible candidate for this position is Masizole Mnqasela, whose promotion is longer overdue.

In the fifth parliament the second most senior portfolio was occupied by a coloured woman. Considering that the former deputy speaker, Piet Pretorius, retired it is highly unlikely the DA will replace Sharna Fernandez as speaker.
For a first term member and speaker she did well. With the Patricia de Lille-saga still fresh, not retaining Fernandez is opening a can of worms and critics will have a field day "attacking" the DA of how people of colour, especially woman, are rejected/demoted if they become too popular.

Winde vote for consistency or change

Votes have been counted, seats allocated and now the real work begins.

The first task of the Premier-designate, Alan Winde, will be to assemble his yes-men and woman. This includes his cabinet and over the following two weeks he will be consulting to appoint that team.

Of the former DA MPLs four are retiring, two moving to the National Assembly and 20 will be returning to the Western Cape Provincial Parliament. Except for Helen Zille retiring her entire cabinet is returning.  Winde can be consistent and only appoint a replacement for himself.

Winde and his DA caucus could also use to their advantage the fact that only 27.80% or 5 of the 18 opposition MPLs are former members and 66.70% have never served in a legislature.

A possible successor for Winde at Community Safety is chairperson of the standing committee, Mirreile Wenger. She knows the portfolio, is competent and being female counts in her favour. Being married to the whistleblower in the Patricia de Lille-saga, Craig Kesson, might raise the eyebrows though and could make a few people uncomfortable.

Another option is moving Albert Fritz, who previously occupied the position. I have two scenarios replacing Fritz at Social Development.

First scenario is Anroux Marais and being replaced at Arts, Culture and Sport by Masizole Mnqasela (let’s be honest his promotion is long overdue).

Second scenario is dr. Ivan Meyer, he previously occupied the position. This leaves vacant the all-important finance portfolio.

A prominent DA member, who served as shadow finance minister, is however moving to the legislature and rumour has it that David Maynier has his eye on the finance ministry.

Maynier was Winde’s campaign manager and fit for purpose, I have no doubt that he will be included in the executive council. The trick is that the finance portfolio is viewed as second most senior after that of premier, and both these occupied by white men in a coloured majority province is sending the wrong message.

Consistency might be a safer bet. Meyer is also deputy federal chairperson of the DA and the most senior coloured leader in the party.

Meyer could make space for Maynier and move to Local Government and Development Planning, but it is highly unlikely that Anton Bredell will move.

A likely portfolio for Bredell, who is provincial chairperson, would be to move to the vacant Chief Whip position. Some will consider this a demotion and others might raise concern at separating party and state as both positions are administrative.

If Bredell is not the new Chief Whip someone who also deserves to be considered is Beverley Schafer. Having a woman in this portfolio could also be the DA silencing critics that their shortage of female leaders.

Schafer’s move to the 5^th floor leaves vacant the Economic Opportunities portfolio, one she could possible be handing over to Maynier – unless the unlikely happen and he and Meyer swap portfolios.

Should Schafer not move another strong contender for Chief Whip is Andricus van der Westhuizen. The former MP’s move to the provincial legislature is surely not to be closer to retirement. In showing confidence in the next generation the Deputy Chief Whip position could likely go to Daylin Mitchell. To date the youngest person to become WCPP MPL and who did well in his first term.

Van der Westhuizen could likely also be deputy speaker. He was once upon a time the speaker of Stellenbosch Municipality. Another possible candidate for this position is Masizole Mnqasela, whose promotion as said is long overdue.

In the fifth parliament the second most important portfolio was occupied by a coloured woman. Considering that the former deputy speaker, Piet Pretorius, retired it is highly unlikely the DA will replace Sharna Fernandez as speaker. Despite some minor flaws, for a first term member and speaker she did well. With the Patricia de Lille-saga still fresh, not retaining her opens a can of worms – critics will have a field day ‘attacking’ the DA of how people of colour, especially woman, are rejected/demoted if they become too popular.

So here’s my three list:

Fit for purpose vs. Consistency

After the General Elections last week, the Western Cape will again be the only province not governed by the ANC. In 2009 there was a big outcry when Helen Zille as premier announced her executive council. I thought I would speculate how a possible provincial cabinet with Zille as Premier might look after the 2014 election.

Zille is on record for saying (at the DA’s manifesto launch) that she’s someone who likes consistency but with Gerrit van Rensburg and Robin Carlisle not returning to the provincial legislature and considering the public outcry against her all male cabinet in 2009, it might be a good opportunity to also make some changes.

Now whether or not MEC’s were performing or not in their portfolios is a different debate, but members, I reckon will likely return to portfolio’s they held before the election are: 

Theuns Botha as Health MEC
Bonginkosi Madikizela as Housing MEC
Alan Winde as Finance, Economic development and Tourism MEC

I think dr. Ivan Meyer might move back to the Social Development portfolio he had between 2009 and 2011, but considering the farm protest and the party’s performance in rural areas in the 2014 election, Meyer (who is also the party’s provincial leader) might also be considered as Agriculture MEC. Should the latter be the case, Albert Fritz might return to the Social Development portfolio. I thought about other possible candidates for Social Development but this portfolio had three MEC’s in 5 years…

My first thoughts on Agriculture MEC, is split between Basil Kivedo (Executive Mayor of Breedevallei municipality) and adv. Gesie van Deventer (Executive Mayor of Drakenstein). Kivedo has the struggle credentials and besides Meyer, is possibly the only other MPL that would be able to speak keep the attention of everyone in the agriculture sector (considering the farmworker protest). Van Deventer has knowledge of the industry and she’s female (a big benefit), how will the sector however receive her.

The other most “most contested” portfolio is that of Community Safety. While Zille is on record for saying she likes consistency, the DA also preaches fit for purpose with the most suitable candidate being appointed. But Zille would also like to avoid the public outcry of not having a female in her cabinet.

Mark Wiley might make a comeback as Community Safety MEC, a portfolio he was responsible for back in 2000. Until 6 May he was the chairperson of the standing committee on Community Safety. Another possible candidate is Lennit Max, who headed the portfolio in 2009, but was sacked by Zille in 2010. Another suitable candidate as Community Safety MEC is Debbie Schafer. Although new, she brings with her experience of the national assembly and was until 6 May, DA shadow deputy minister of Justice and Constitutional Development and a former DA shadow deputy minister of Police.

Should Wiley be the preferred candidate for community safety, I feel Schafer might be considered for the Transport and Public Works portfolio. She was one of the DA’s best performing MPs in the National Assembly and not making it onto the party’s national or regional to national list, was probably a surprise but also an indication that she will most definitely be given a “senior” portfolio in the provincial legislature.

I can’t think of any other suitable candidates for the Transport and Public Works portfolio, but if I had to randomly pick any it would probably include Wiley or Rodney Lentit.

I have a strong feeling that Lentit will be included in the cabinet and might even be given Sport and Cultural Affairs, if he’s not considered Albert Fritz might get this ministry.

There is also the possibility that Lentit be given the Education Ministry, but I doubt Donald Grant will be shifted out of this portfolio.

I feel Anton Bredell is likely to return to Local Government and Development Planning, but he might be given the Transport and Publics portfolio and Schafer might score the Local Government and Development Planning portfolio.

I decided to also play around with a few other key positions in the legislature.

My first choice for Speaker of the provincial legislature is Basil Kivedo. But Piet Pretorius, who briefly served as Deputy Speaker might become Speaker and Kivedo his deputy. Should Kivedo be given a ministry, Nomafrench Mbombo might be given the deputy speaker position.

I suspect that Anroux Marais might be the new Chief Whip, but should they not become part of the executive council Schafer and Kivedo (in that order) will also be strong contenders.

Should she not be the Chief Whip, Marais will probably be Caucus Chair again. Kivedo and Schafer would also be good candidates for Caucus Chair, but so would Pretorius and even Sharna Fernandez.

So here is my three list:

Helen Zille: Premier

Ivan Meyer: Social Development

Bonginkosi Madikizela: Human Settlements

Theuns Botha: Health

Gesie van Deventer: Agriculture

Anton Bredell: Local Government & Development Planning or Transport & Public Works

Rodney Lentit: Sport & Cultural Affairs or Transport & Public Works

Debbie Schafer: Community Safety or Transport & Public Works

Basil Kivedo: Speaker or Agriculture or Caucus Chair

Anroux Marais: Chief Whip or Caucus Chair

Mark Wiley: Transport & Public Works or Community Safety

Alan Winde: Finance, Economic Development & Tourism

Donald Grant: Education

Piet Pretorius: Deputy Speaker or Speaker

Sharna Fernandez: Caucus Chair