Voters made an x for the devil they know

Voters made an x for the devil they know. This is the conclusion one can draw from the recent local government election. 

Despite the ANC and DA still being the two biggest political parties, they did not have a good local government election. 

Both should also be doing some serious introspection.

While at it they may as well look at and compare their message to that of other parties. Their ignorant approach and avoiding the noise that often cause distraction is what cost them votes.

The voter percentage everywhere was down. There are many factors to that, for starters the Independent Electoral Commission was not ready for an election. In their defence they said before the proclamation they not ready, but that is just poor planning. Secondly the election was on a Monday that was a public holiday, and many compatriots took a long weekend. There are other factors as well like the weather and fact that political parties did not offer any real service delivery solutions and speak to the heart of voters.

In Drakenstein with 51,44% the voter percentage was 13,80% less than the 64,72% in 2016. There were 131 182 registered voters of whom 67 483 voted in 2021, compared to the 129 265 registered voters of whom 83 666 voted in 2016.

Despite the DA and ANC retaining all the wards and the ANC winning one from the Progressive Democratic Movement (PDM), the DA lost 7 and ANC 2 seats. The DA went from governing with a comfortable 66% to a 55% support, while the ANC went from 23% to 19%. This is a lot for the two big political parties.

On the ballot paper there were 19 political parties of whom 11 have won seats in the Drakenstein council. There was an expectation that GOOD would perform well, but they disappointed and managed only to perform uhm good [sic]. Nevertheless, they took votes from the DA and in some wards from the ANC. 

Meanwhile the Freedom Front Plus, Concerned Drakenstein Residents, ACDP and Patriotic Alliance did very well. Icosa increased its support, but there was an opportunity for them to do better. Big surprises in the election were the EFF, who lost votes, and the PAC and Al Jama who both increased their support.

Why did the DA and ANC still do better than the smaller parties? Both can run bigger campaigns and, based on a summarised response from a few voters, they voted for the devil they know.

Several wards had a voter percentage of under 50% with wards 5, 8 and 24 at 41%, ward 14 had 40% and ward 16 with 35% the lowest. The highest voter percentage was 71% in ward 2, but still lower than in 2016. The DA’s support in wards dropped from 66,30 to 54,92%.

Compared to 2016 the DA lost the most support in ward 20 (31,82%), ward 24 (30,81%), ward 14 (26,69%), ward 22 (26,18%) and ward 25 (25,78%). The party had a slight increase in ward 6 (4,67%) and ward 28 (0,7%).

The Freedom Front Plus performed well in ward 2 gaining 24% of the vote, where the DA lost 23,68%. GOOD did good in ward 25 (25,92%) and received 17,81% in ward 33 where the DA lost 21%. In ward 11 the DA lost 22,74% where Good received 15,67% and CDR 14,81%. CDR also performed well in ward 14 (16.81%) and got 14,86% in ward 13 where the DA lost 23,4%.

Smaller parties who did well, based on the voter percentages from 2021 vs 2016 and political party representation in council, is a clear sign that voters are not happy with the bigger parties and sending a message to parties that votes can be taken back.

The challenge now is for the duly elected public representatives of the fifth Drakenstein municipal council to be just that: public representatives. It is especially the smaller parties who will need to show they can be an effective opposition, with a bigger task resting on the shoulders of those entering council for the first time to make an impact on their communities.

Some entering council will learn that there is a difference to being an activist and being a public representative and saying things are easier than getting things done, as well as the consequences for some decisions.

GOOD will have to be careful not to make the same mistakes as the Independent Democrats back in the day, while CDR needs to be careful not to walk the same path as that of the Federation of Democrats during the second administration.

Most important for our public representatives is that the newly formed government might have been given a mandate, but that should not be taken for granted. Those not part of the government were also given a mandate to hold local government accountable and ensure they play their part in ensuring service delivery takes place.

An edited version of this opinion piece was originally published in Paarl Post of 11 November 2021.

Winde's new beginning

A week ago I speculated who will feature in Alan Winde’s first Western Cape cabinet. As mentioned then Winde can be consistent and only appoint a replacement for any possible vacancies. Read previous blog here: Winde vote for consistency or change

During a recent interview the guy known as the “jobs”-Premier confirmed he will be re-configuring the current portfolio’s and also look bringing in new younger talent. As Winde puts it: “I am not going to be around forever and we need to prepare now already.”

In the interview Winde was clear that he is looking at re-configuring cabinet to align it with the DA manifesto and only once that part is complete one can start adding names.

The incoming Premier of the Western Cape is advocating for jobs, safer communities, education that does more than the basic and the arts and culture sector to be more than performing arts but a vehicle for job creation. I’ve taken this, along with the DA’s ideal 15 national ministries and came to the following reconfiguration of the provincial executive:

- Health and Social Development
- Cultural Affairs and Sport
- Finance
- Human Settlements
- Community Safety
- Transport and Integrated Planning
- Agriculture, Local Government and International Relations
- Education, Skills & Innovation
- Environmental Affairs & Planning
- Economic Opportunities, Assets & Facilities

Adding names to the portfolio's is not that easy, as it looks...
Bonginkosi Madikizela looks set to return to Human Settlements. 
Nomafrench Mbombo has been very successful in the health portfolio and one would want her to continue with that. Because you can link the two Social Development could be added here.

Anroux Marais has been doing well at Arts, Cultural Affairs & Sport. Who can forget in her first three months she became the first MEC to go swim with lifeguards.

A possible successor at Community Safety is the former chairperson of the standing committee, Mireille Wenger. She is familiar with the portfolio, competent and being a female counts in her favour. Being married to the whistle-blower in the Patricia de Lille-saga, Craig Kesson, might raise the eyebrows though and could make a few people uncomfortable.

Another option is Albert Fritz, who headed the ministry previously. He could possibly also head Transport and Integrated Planning, a portfolio Tertius Simmers could also be given. This was Simmers' portfolio as Garden Route District Municipality MMC.
Simmers could also be given Economic Opportunities, Assets and Facilities. A portfolio currently headed by Beverely Schafer, whom I'm speculating if she does not return to the executive becomes Chief Whip.

Another candidate for Chief Whip is Debbie Schafer. That is if she does not return to Education, Skills and Innovation. Leaving it vacant for Daylin Mitchell.

It is highly unlikely that Anton Bredell will not return to Environmental Affairs and Planning. If he does not... A likely portfolio for Bredell, who is provincial chairperson, would be to move to the vacant Chief Whip position. Some will consider this a demotion and others might raise concern at separating party and state - as both positions are administrative.

A prominent DA member, who served as shadow finance minister, is rumoured to have his eye on the finance ministry.
David Maynier was Winde's campaign manager and is fit for purpose. I have no doubt that he will be included in the executive. 
The trick is that the finance portfolio is viewed as second most important after that of the premier, and both these occupied by white men in a coloured majority province is sending the wrong message.

This means dr. Ivan Meyer could head Agriculture, Local Government and International Relations. Meyer is the DA's deputy federal chairperson and most senior coloured leader in the party and has a good relationship with all three sectors.

As previously said another strong contender for Chief Whip is Andricus van der Westhuizen. The move by the former MP to the provincial legislature is surely not to be closer to retirement. Should Mitchell not be included in the executive he could become deputy Chief Whip. This is the DA showing confidence in the next generation.

Van der Westhuizen could likely also be deputy speaker. He was once upon a time the speaker of Stellenbosch Municipality. Another possible candidate for this position is Masizole Mnqasela, whose promotion is longer overdue.

In the fifth parliament the second most senior portfolio was occupied by a coloured woman. Considering that the former deputy speaker, Piet Pretorius, retired it is highly unlikely the DA will replace Sharna Fernandez as speaker.
For a first term member and speaker she did well. With the Patricia de Lille-saga still fresh, not retaining Fernandez is opening a can of worms and critics will have a field day "attacking" the DA of how people of colour, especially woman, are rejected/demoted if they become too popular.

Overcrowded delayed trains anticipated next 2 years

Trains in the region are subjected to be overcrowded and delayed for the next 18 to 24 months. 
Nope not an SMS-notification or announcement but what members of the Western Cape Provincial Parliament’s Standing Committee on Transport were told during a briefing by Metrorail.

Ironically the meeting started with the Metrorail delegation being delayed – not from a train, but security processes signing in.

The rail operator painted a picture of crime crippling the network, preventing it from delivering a reliable service to it’s hundreds of commuters.
Metrorail requires 88 train sets to operate a normal service, but has since October 2015 loss 101 carriages in arson-related incidents. The result? shorter trains and train cancellations. It also stated five years ago no one bothered with trains but these days more of Prasa assets are targeted.
It managed to make 200 arrest in July, 127 less than the 327 in February this year. What is interesting about this figure is for the year there has been no arrest for pick pocketing and only one for a fraudulent ticket – in March.
“It would appear as if Metrorail is now more focused on taking on rail crime than running trains,” said Nobulumko Nkondlo (ANC).
For Masizole Mnqasela (DA) it seemed as if there is no relationship between Prasa and the justice cluster, while his colleague Mark Wiley wanted to known if the State Security department is part of Metrorail’s specialised task team.
Metrorail says they not shifting the blame, but appeal that the different government agencies work with them for the rail operator to deliver a service. “We need to know why trains are burning at 1am. It cannot be because of delays, those trains were not late.”

Committee chairman, Nceba Hinana, says what concerns him is people hanging out from trains.
Although it mentioned being active on social media, commuters able to check train updates via GoMetro and SMS-notifications sent to commuters, Metrorail admitted communication is a challenge, saying they do not communicate enough to commuters.
Regional Manager, Richard Walker, shared with the committee that he himself commute by train and he also find it frustrating to arrive at a station and the electronic board is not working or don’t reflect a delay.
“One of the reasons why people board the first train arriving is because of the uncertainty if there will be a next one or what time it will arrive, adding to overcrowded trains. Part of attending to this is being more predictable.”
Metrorail’s train design team is currently re-looking the timetable and commuters could soon receive communication regarding a revised timetable, to take effect September 1st 2017. 

Two interesting points from Metrorail’s presentation of 50-slides, that even the honourable members failed to notice, is:
1) Their main stakeholder (commuters) is not included in the list of external support and partnerships.
2) Metrorail don’t now it’s own boundaries and where it runs a service. In it’s introduction it states its operations stretch across 6 municipalities and lists them as Cape Town, Drakenstein, Winelands, Breede River, Swartland and Helderberg.
Firstly a simple Google-search would have told them there is no Winelands and Helderberg municipalities. 
Secondly Metrorail’s operations stretch across: Cape Town, Drakenstein, Witzenberg, Breede Valley, Stellenbosch and Swartland.
The provincial transport minister, Donald Grant, also attended the meeting and said what is unacceptable is that commuters at times have to wait three hours for a train.
Metrorail reacted there exceptional cases do occur. 
ANC’s Cameron Dugmore says “we in agreement, Metrorail is failing and now we need to solve it together".  
He also tweeted what I’ve previously stated the problem is bigger than Metrorail. And continued: “he is not convinced the current plans are enough”.
He also suggested that Metrorail appear before the committee again, with fewer slides, and go into detail on the turn around strategy. Dugmore also want commuters and other stakeholders to be part of the meeting and give their input.
MEC Grant’s concern however is what is being done about the service for next week and next month.
Mnqasela gave the best summary of the situation: “we in a crisis and it cannot be business as usual”.


Metrorail’s solution is summarized in their accelerated turn around actions and includes:

• Increase train set availability from 60 to 65 in the next 3 months.
• Increase train set availability from 66 to 70 in the next 6 months.
• Increase train set availability from 71to 75 in the next 9 months.
• Increase train set availability from 76 to 80 in the next 12 months.
• Increase train set availability from 81 to 88 in the next 18 months.
• Reduce short trains from 86% to 50% of available trains.
• Increase reliability by
• Improving availability of rotating machines and wheels by fast track process to require components
• Availability of materials and spares by finalising regional tender process.
• Reduce signal infrastructure delays by rehabilitation of conventional signalling systems, migration of copper to fire, vandal proofing of signalling equipment and reinstatement of level crossings
• Reduce perway infrastructure delays by fast tracking procurement and approve contracts with Transnet.

Dissolve: Making South Africa Great Again

Prior to Woman’s Day South Africa saw opposition parties unite, speaking like one voice, calling on the democratically elected Jacob Zuma to step down as President. A motion of no confidence – the 8th since 2009 – even managed to get 177 votes*.

Less than 48 hours after the DA sponsored MONC failed the party informed the Speaker of the National Assembly that they will table a motion to dissolve Parliament. 

The consequence of such a motion succeeding is a General Election.
Amongst the reasons cited for the motion is the National Assembly no longer representing the will of the people, failing to hold President Jacob Zuma accountable and failing in its duties to uphold the Constitution.
Whether you agree or disagree with the DA and this motion, you have to acknowledge the length the party would go in holding Parliament accountable. 

The DA’s intentions might be pure but it is quite evident the leadership is listening to advisers in the office and not activist in the street. From online scanning it looks as if many of the party’s public representatives, across the three spheres, have expressed support for such a motion – as one would probably expect loyal DA public representatives to do – it is DA supporters and activist, those foot soldiers walking door-to-door everyday who are not in favour of this latest DA-sponsored motion.
On the ground people want to know what besides only talking about Zuma and what he is doing wrong is the DA doing about racism, youth unemployment, crime, gangsterism, land reform, housing, hate crime, etc.

One should also not underestimate your voter and say where we govern, we govern well. In the City of Cape Town residents are unhappy at high electricity prices. Despite governing the Western Cape for 8 years and many of the municipalities for more than five years there is no integrated public transport system (besides George). Very little to no economic opportunities also exist for young people in especially rural towns. Appointments in DA-led council are also mostly individuals from outside the municipal borders and seldom young people, but mostly those with years of experience (this can be good and bad).
One DA supporter sums this up as ‘why can the party not focus on where it governs and build on the gains’.

Political parties have also not reacted favourable to the proposed motion.
The Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) says the motion is misplaced, misguided, reckless and irresponsible.
Freedom Front Plus (FF+) says it is opportunist. Dr. Pieter Groenewald says the DA must be careful or their behaviour might benefit and strengthen the Zuma faction within the ANC. “Voters will start to get discouraged because their expectation that Zuma will be oust is not met and this will result in voters becoming apolitical and won’t vote in 2019.”
Congress of the People (Cope) says as parties working in collaboration on issues of national importance they have never discussed such a motion. “We believe in supremacy of the constitution and respect the democratic electoral process and its current cycle,” says Mosiuoa Lekota.
The African National Congress (ANC) believes the motion confirms what the party has been says in the MONC debate this is an attempt by the DA at regime change through parliament.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) says it already approached the DA in a move to have Parliament dissolved and was rejected and will thus not support the motion.
United Democratic Movement (UDM) says of importance is the readiness of the IEC for the 2019 National and Provincial Elections. Bantu Holomisa says the IEC needs to capture voters’ addresses before the Constitutional Court deadline of June 2018. “The IEC should move with speed to ensure that the voters’ roll is cleaned. We need to ensure that the 2019 Elections are credible, free and fair.”

For the DA’s motion to succeed it needs 201 votes. The party itself only has 89 seats and parties mentioned above: ANC: 249, EFF: 25, IFP: 10, UDM: 4, FF+: 4 and Cope: 3. 
Considering the ANC’s numerical dominance (alone), it is highly unlikely this motion will pass. What is also important to keep in mind is that the few ANC MPs who were bewitched Tuesday was unhappy with Jacob Zuma as President and not with the ANC-led government.

One cannot help but wonder why with such a big move, where you need the support of others, was there no consultation with them prior to your announcement. 
DA Leader Mmusi Maimane himself has said it looks highly likely that a coalition government might occupy the Union Buildings after 2019. With that in mind, would that not require a good working relationship now already?

Should this motion succeed and we have the election, there is no guarantee that those ANC voters upset at current events and factions in the governing party will vote for the DA. There is a bigger possibility that the EFF will gain ANC voters. One should also ask will the DA accept the outcome, whether it is majority voting for ANC again or DA shifting to third largest party.

In my humble opinion our opposition should not be too optimistic about the cracks showing in the governing party. Instead of trying to dissolve Parliament, our opposition should present Mzansi with a clear plan and not just say we will make South Africa Great Again. 



The 177 votes is significant considering the 12 opposition parties in the National Assembly together hold 151 seats. On the day of the vote, there was one vacancy in the opposition benches and two were on sick leave. Furthermore one MP indicated he won’t be voting more the motion and another also hinted at that. Having said that and considering 9 MPs abstained, one draws the conclusion about 35 of 249 ANC MPs supported the motion.

Drakenstein’s surprises and disappointments

#2016MunicipalElections had some surprises and disappointments. The Democratic Alliance not only became the first political party to win a consecutive local government election in Drakenstein, but also increased their vote with nearly 10%. It looks like the DA is copying part of its City of Cape Town performance in the second biggest municipality in the Western Cape.

While the DA increased their support in the Paarl East – coloured – area, especially Chicago, Amstelhof, Nederburg, Denneburg. It did not show any major increase in so-called “white-areas”. In Wellington the DA’s support took a dip in most of the wards. This could be due to the support the EFF, PDM, Freedom Front Plus, Federation of Democrats, ACDP and ICOSA received.  Smaller parties all increased their vote from 2011. Most notably is the PDM who gaining 1.01% from 2011’s 0.68%. ACDP gained 0.38% and the FF+ gained 0.35%.

The ANC managed to only get 23.59% of the vote. That is 7.23% less than the 30.83% in 2011 and will send the once governing party to the drawing board. The ANC’s support in the wards it managed to hold onto also took a dip of between 4 and 6%.

Another notable thing from the election is that former ANC councillor, Linda Landu – who defected from the ANC to the DA, months before the election – could not win Ward 12 as her new party might have hoped for. She only managed to get 4.2%, would thus be interesting to see with what Mayco position she would be rewarded.

There were atleast three surprises in this election in Drakenstein. One of them being the DA not only taking the Gouda ward from the ANC with more than 10%, but increasing their support to just under 50%.

The DA also took control of another former ANC stronghold, the Simondium ward, with 62.32% - 15.17% more than the ANC’s 47.15% in 2011. This could be due to unhappiness by residents in the ward with the former councillor. What makes the win significant though is that the DA candidate is not even from the area.

Smaller parties showed they should not be underestimated in local government election. The Progressive People’s Movement took control of an ANC stronghold. The PDM won the ward but with less than 50% only getting 41.67%. What makes it surprising is that the ANC lost more than double its support, falling from 85.53% in 2011 to 40.83% in this election.

One of the other surprises is that the EFF did not perform as well as many might have hoped it would. This could indicate that while some agree with some of the things the revolutionary movement is advocating for, its performance on the Parliamentary floor was not good enough.

While the EFF gathered quite support in coloured areas, across Drakenstein, it managed to make some good inroads in Mbekweni - possibly contributing to the drop in the ANC support.

As the fourth Drakenstein municipal council constitutes the voice of the voters will be represented in council by eight political parties. This is the most political party representation since the amalgamation in 2000 of the council.

Newly elected Drakenstein Municipality Councillors

New Drakenstein Executive:

Executive Mayor	Conrad Poole
Deputy Executive Mayor & Finances	Gert Combrink
Speaker	Aidan Stowman
Chief Whip	Anre Koegelenberg
Safety (acting Mayor in absence of Mayor & Deputy)	Rean Smuts
Engineering	Koos le Roux
Corporate Services	Patricia Makoena
Planning & Economic Development	Johan Muller
Social Services	Francis Jacobs
Sport, Youth & Culture	Laurichia van Niekerk
Parks and Public Open Spaces	Christephine Kearns
Inter-Governmental Relations & Communication	Reinhardt van Nieuwenhuyzen
Human Settlements	Lorraine Willemse
Rural Managements	Rita Andreas

Drakenstein Councillors to Cape Winelands District Municipality:

ANC	Colin Rens
	Lydia Sambokwe
DA	Linda Landu
	Ruth Arnolds
	Loekie Niehaus
	Miriam Adriaanse
	Eva Gouws
EFF	Moses Klaas

Following the #2016MunicipalElections the Democratic Alliance won the second biggest municipality in the Western Cape with 66.02%.
8 parties will represent the voters of Drakenstein. Seat calculation: Democratic Alliance 43 seats (66.02%), ANC 15 seats (23.59%), EFF: 2 seats (2.36%), PDM: 1 seat (1.67%), ACDP: 1 seat (1.38%), FD: 1 seat (0.75%),
ICOSA: 1 seat (0.74) and FF+ 1 seat (0.69%).

ACDP		Joseph Matthee
ANC		Abraham Bekeer
ANC		Bongiwe Duba
ANC		Moutie Richards
ANC		Mandisa Vika
ANC		Colin Rens
ANC		Amelda Afrika
ANC		Thuso Mpulanyana
ANC		Lydia Sambokwe
ANC		Nkomfa Mkabile
ANC	W05	Ndileka Mbenene
ANC	W06	Tryphina Zukiswa Nqoro
ANC	W08	Nomonde Zikhali
ANC	W09	Tembekile Mangena
ANC	W12	Mcedisi Nobula
ANC	W32	Lawrence Nzele
DA		Conrad Poole
DA		Wendy Philander
DA		Linda Landu
DA		Koos le Roux
DA		Nancy George
DA		Gert Combrink
DA		Rita Andreas
DA		Zolani Masoka
DA		Andre Koegelenberg
DA		Minah Mdunusie
DA		Rean Smuts
DA		Patricia Makoena
DA		Nico Sauerman
DA		Anathi Lugqola
DA		Elizabeth Solomons
DA		Aletta van Santen
DA		Ben de Goede
DA	W01	Calvin Kroutz
DA	W02	Hendrik Kotze
DA	W03	Wilhelmina Smit
DA	W04	Johan Miller
DA	W07	Ruth Arnolds
DA	W10	Christephine Kearns
DA	W11	Aidan Stowman
DA	W13	Soudah Ross
DA	W14	Jo-Ann de Wet
DA	W15	Loekie Niehaus
DA	W17	Jako Matthee
DA	W18	Albertus Buckle
DA	W19	Theunis Bester
DA	W20	Patricia Cupido
DA	W21	Eva Gouws
DA	W22	Felix Cupido
DA	W23	Frances Jacobs
DA	W24	Miriam Adriaanse
DA	W25	Laurichia van Niekerk
DA	W26	Joan Anderson
DA	W27	Vanessa Booysen
DA	W28	Reinhardt van Nieuwenhuyzen
DA	W29	Lorraine Willemse
DA	W30	Johannes Smit
DA	W31	Geoffrey Ford
DA	W33	Sharon September
EFF		Moses Thembile Klaas
EFF		Xoliswa Jonas
Federation of Democrats		Marthinus le Hoe
Freedom Front Plus		Willem Meyer
ICOSA		Alvina Abrahams
PDM	W16	Derrick Blanckenberg