DA Cape Town no.2 more interesting

The DA announced Geordin Hill-Lewis as it's Mayoral Candidate for the City of Cape Town. An announcement that came as a no surprise.

There are a few important events surrounding the announcement of the mayoral candidate.

The first thing to keep our eyes on is whether the incumbent Dan Plato will complete the current term, or will he move to the national assembly and become a back-bencher or will he move to the provincial legislature.

Should Plato move to the Western Cape Provincial Parliament the second thing to keep our eyes on is if he will become and MEC and who will make space for him in cabinet?

LIFO [Last In, First Out] would probably be the easiest solution, Daylin Mitchell could be dropped as Transport and Public Works MEC and become the answer to the third important thing to keep our eyes on: who will be candidate for Deputy Mayor.

For Hill-Lewis to have governance experience is not that crucial but his lieutenants and especially number two should. It thus looks like an easy, simple move but in politics nothing is easy or simple.

Daylin Mitchell might only be minister for a few months, but he is a former chairperson of the transport and public works, as well as premier and constitutional matters committees. He is also a former deputy chief whip and deputy caucus chairperson.

One can expect the Deputy Mayoral Candidate position to be a bigger competition than the Mayoral one.

Race is a sensitive issue and the DA who believes in non-racialism might give some hope to the current deputy mayor Ian Neilson for another term or Mayco Members JP Smith and James Vos to throw their names in the hat. Neilson, Smith and Vos have the expertise for the position and would give great support to Hill-Lewis as a Mayor. It would however be difficult to convince not only voters and potential voters but also party members that with white Mayor and Deputy Mayor Candidates the DA is not a white party.

From within the DA there would be a push that the number two be a person of colour. Four names come to mind...

Top of the list is Xanthea Limberg, whose name have been previously rumoured as a potential deputy mayor candidate, followed by Zahid Badroodien.

The other two on my list might not have governance experience but they know the communities, are regularly on the ground and to an extend are engaging on the streets. They are Angus McKenzie, the Bonteheuwel-ward councillor, and Reagen Allen, chairperson of the standing committee on community safety and cultural affairs and sport.

Three of the above eight names have previously hinted at aiming for the blue cloak. There could however be wildcard candidates like Patricia van der Ross and Dr. Arlene Adams.

The DA can be very predictable, applying textbook politics, like watching House of Cards and West Wing at once. Thus, when selecting the number two for the City of Cape Town, the DA should be honest and take parties like the EFF, NFP, Good, Icosa, CDR and the Patriotic Alliance serious. 

It should also first decide whether the status quo will do or will they want to stir the pot – like deal with pending disciplinary matters…

Mother of (only) the City

In politics you never trust everything you being told. It’s a game of practically anything goes.

No matter how true it might be, Patricia De Lille’s reasons for resigning as Leader of the Democratic Alliance in the Western Cape had a number of things running through my mind.

As Mayor of the Mother City she might lead the biggest DA caucus, but she’s not the first to be a government and party leader. See below for other DA leaders in Government

This iron lady has also never shy away from a challenge and not even personal matters can prevent her from giving her best. De Lille also has strong and competent teams supporting her as executive mayor and provincial leader. With the newly revamped Mayco, with four mini-mayors and deputy executive mayor now without a portfolio one would assume it would lift the burden on the City’s number one.

De Lille, known by many for her integrity, cited making our cities, under a DA-government, great again – might be true. But one cannot ignore a few things, most notably her unofficial campaign heading to Leeuwenhof.

The former leader of the Independent Democrats has been tipped at becoming Premier if the DA retains its majority in the Western Cape in 2019. Former DA leader, Premier Helen Zille, is also rumoured to challenge De Lille for the provincial leadership later in November.

This resignation thus paves the way for the provincial Deputy Leader, Bonginkosi Madikizela, to be interim provincial leader. This could be part of De Lille and possibly the DA’s campaign to attract votes heading towards 2019. It could also be part of De Lille’s counter or an agreement to a possible Zille challenge for the November provincial congress.

Both Zille and De Lille are known for supporting change and new leaders emerging and Madikizela is one of the rising stars.

There however rumours doing the rounds that De Lille appeared before a disciplinary hearing. DA officials are mum on this but one can’t help but wonder, what if?

The rumour can make sense for the following:

National DA leadership rapping provincial leadership over the knuckles – for losing or decline support in certain municipalities – and De Lille as leader takes the blame.

Could also be that De Lille took the fall for the Kannaland caucus entering into a coalition with the ANC or the appointment of poo-protester, Loyiso Nkhola, as ESO (executive support officer) in the City of Cape Town.

I really find it difficult to believe that the first female to lead a political party cannot multitask between being both a party and government leader. De Lille was PAC Chief Whip and Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Transport (during the first democratic Parliament), leader of the Independent Democrats and Western Cape Social Development minister and served one term as Mayor and being DA provincial leader. Reasons thus given just don’t add up, considering there are others who juggle or juggled between party and government duties.

Helen Zille was Executive Mayor and DA Federal Leader. Dr. Ivan Meyer is Western Cape Finance Minister and DA Deputy Federal Chairperson, Bonginkosi Madikizela is provincial deputy leader and Western Cape Housing Minister. While provincial Social Development minister, adv. Albert Fritz and Eden Executive Mayor, Memory Booysen are both deputy provincial chairpersons and Tijmen van Essen (Swartland Executive Mayor) and Dan Plato (WC Community Safety minister) both additional members on the provincial leadership.

Whichever option you choose, Patricia de Lille now only mother to the City is good for the nearly 4 million residents in Cape Town, but possibly not for the DA and more than 2 million others in the rest of the Western Cape.

Fit for purpose vs. Consistency

After the General Elections last week, the Western Cape will again be the only province not governed by the ANC. In 2009 there was a big outcry when Helen Zille as premier announced her executive council. I thought I would speculate how a possible provincial cabinet with Zille as Premier might look after the 2014 election.

Zille is on record for saying (at the DA’s manifesto launch) that she’s someone who likes consistency but with Gerrit van Rensburg and Robin Carlisle not returning to the provincial legislature and considering the public outcry against her all male cabinet in 2009, it might be a good opportunity to also make some changes.

Now whether or not MEC’s were performing or not in their portfolios is a different debate, but members, I reckon will likely return to portfolio’s they held before the election are: 

Theuns Botha as Health MEC
Bonginkosi Madikizela as Housing MEC
Alan Winde as Finance, Economic development and Tourism MEC

I think dr. Ivan Meyer might move back to the Social Development portfolio he had between 2009 and 2011, but considering the farm protest and the party’s performance in rural areas in the 2014 election, Meyer (who is also the party’s provincial leader) might also be considered as Agriculture MEC. Should the latter be the case, Albert Fritz might return to the Social Development portfolio. I thought about other possible candidates for Social Development but this portfolio had three MEC’s in 5 years…

My first thoughts on Agriculture MEC, is split between Basil Kivedo (Executive Mayor of Breedevallei municipality) and adv. Gesie van Deventer (Executive Mayor of Drakenstein). Kivedo has the struggle credentials and besides Meyer, is possibly the only other MPL that would be able to speak keep the attention of everyone in the agriculture sector (considering the farmworker protest). Van Deventer has knowledge of the industry and she’s female (a big benefit), how will the sector however receive her.

The other most “most contested” portfolio is that of Community Safety. While Zille is on record for saying she likes consistency, the DA also preaches fit for purpose with the most suitable candidate being appointed. But Zille would also like to avoid the public outcry of not having a female in her cabinet.

Mark Wiley might make a comeback as Community Safety MEC, a portfolio he was responsible for back in 2000. Until 6 May he was the chairperson of the standing committee on Community Safety. Another possible candidate is Lennit Max, who headed the portfolio in 2009, but was sacked by Zille in 2010. Another suitable candidate as Community Safety MEC is Debbie Schafer. Although new, she brings with her experience of the national assembly and was until 6 May, DA shadow deputy minister of Justice and Constitutional Development and a former DA shadow deputy minister of Police.

Should Wiley be the preferred candidate for community safety, I feel Schafer might be considered for the Transport and Public Works portfolio. She was one of the DA’s best performing MPs in the National Assembly and not making it onto the party’s national or regional to national list, was probably a surprise but also an indication that she will most definitely be given a “senior” portfolio in the provincial legislature.

I can’t think of any other suitable candidates for the Transport and Public Works portfolio, but if I had to randomly pick any it would probably include Wiley or Rodney Lentit.

I have a strong feeling that Lentit will be included in the cabinet and might even be given Sport and Cultural Affairs, if he’s not considered Albert Fritz might get this ministry.

There is also the possibility that Lentit be given the Education Ministry, but I doubt Donald Grant will be shifted out of this portfolio.

I feel Anton Bredell is likely to return to Local Government and Development Planning, but he might be given the Transport and Publics portfolio and Schafer might score the Local Government and Development Planning portfolio.

I decided to also play around with a few other key positions in the legislature.

My first choice for Speaker of the provincial legislature is Basil Kivedo. But Piet Pretorius, who briefly served as Deputy Speaker might become Speaker and Kivedo his deputy. Should Kivedo be given a ministry, Nomafrench Mbombo might be given the deputy speaker position.

I suspect that Anroux Marais might be the new Chief Whip, but should they not become part of the executive council Schafer and Kivedo (in that order) will also be strong contenders.

Should she not be the Chief Whip, Marais will probably be Caucus Chair again. Kivedo and Schafer would also be good candidates for Caucus Chair, but so would Pretorius and even Sharna Fernandez.

So here is my three list:

Helen Zille: Premier

Ivan Meyer: Social Development

Bonginkosi Madikizela: Human Settlements

Theuns Botha: Health

Gesie van Deventer: Agriculture

Anton Bredell: Local Government & Development Planning or Transport & Public Works

Rodney Lentit: Sport & Cultural Affairs or Transport & Public Works

Debbie Schafer: Community Safety or Transport & Public Works

Basil Kivedo: Speaker or Agriculture or Caucus Chair

Anroux Marais: Chief Whip or Caucus Chair

Mark Wiley: Transport & Public Works or Community Safety

Alan Winde: Finance, Economic Development & Tourism

Donald Grant: Education

Piet Pretorius: Deputy Speaker or Speaker

Sharna Fernandez: Caucus Chair